Placeholder: new Sapienta publications
It's a deadline-heavy week
This is a placeholder post while I battle with client deadlines . And apologies to those who subscribe to Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus because you have seen most of this already.
In 2024 I launched two new paid products from Sapienta Economics that are separate from the monthly, flagship Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus reports. They are called Sapienta Cyprus Insights and the Cyprus Problem Risk Index. One day Substack will allow tiered pricing so that I can offer all of my subscription products, with different prices, in a single place. But for the time being, you will have to contact me directly or via the Sapienta Economics website.
Here are more details about the new products.
Sapienta Cyprus Insights: short, events-led briefings
Sapienta Cyprus Insights are primarily events-led briefings aimed at professionals who need to report back quickly to their head offices or capitals about significant new developments in Cyprus. They are short reports focusing on topical issues and are published approximately every two months.
Standard sections of events-led Cyprus Insights
What is happening?
Why is it significant?
Further details
What to expect: scenarios
Impact on security/international relations/financial stability (as appropriate).
The six briefings in 2024 were on the following subjects.
Cyprus problem. What to expect from the just-appointed UN envoy, including three scenarios with differing likelihoods. Published on 9 January 2024.
Natural gas. Update on natural gas development plans for Chevron-led Aphrodite, ENI-led Cronos, relevant developments in Israel and Egypt and three scenarios relating to security risks. Published on 5 April 2024.
Elections. Analysis of European Parliament and local election results. Published on 10 June 2024.
Turkish Cypriot politics. Politics of northern Cyprus. The then forthcoming UBP party congress in September and expectations about the Turkish leadership elections in October 2025. Published on 16 August 2024.
Electricity interconnector. What are the latest developments with the Great Sea Interconnector submarine electricity cable that will run from Crete to Cyprus? Published on 20 October.
Economy. Comparison of economy on both parts of the island. Published on 31 December.
Unlike the events-led pieces, the December edition of Sapienta Cyprus Insights was a three-page report comparing the macroeconomies on both sides. It had 17 macroeconomic indicators, including GDP, inflation, unemployment, productivity, estimates for GDP per capita at purchasing power standard (PPS), and so on. It also included 10-year averages for the growth rates.
This special report also included information of relevance to those involved in trying to solve the Cyprus problem, such as population ratios and GDP per capita in the Turkish Cypriot community (TCC) as a proportion of GDP per capita in the Greek Cypriot community (GCC).
Sapienta Cyprus Problem Risk Index: keeping an eye on flashpoints
The Cyprus Problem Risk Index was launched in September and an update is due in the next few weeks.
The Sapienta Cyprus Problem Risk Index is compiled from 10 overarching factors that influence the intensity of the Cyprus problem. Each of the 10 factors has a factual state-of-play that can change over time. States-of-play include but are not limited to military activity in the UN-monitored buffer zone, in maritime areas offshore, Turkey’s external relations and the status of the UN and negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem.
The index has been on a gently rising trend since the failure of high-level talks in Crans Montana in 2017. You can find the press release on the Cyprus Problem Risk Index here.
