The Week in Cyprus, 6 Mar 2024
Collated news links of interest to ‘outsiders looking in’
Photo source: @UN_Cyprus on Twitter.
Politics: what you didn’t know about UNFICYP. The UN Peacekeeping Force (UNFICYP) commemorated its 60th anniversary on 4 March and paid tribute to those who have died in service (pictured). Watch out for a podcast coming out in a few days with Prof James Ker-Lindsay, where he tells me how UNFICYP nearly did not come into existence at all. You can find the Figure It podcast on all the usual channels or on Island Talks here.
Politics: government problems. One year into his five-year term, the Republic of Cyprus president, Nikos Christodoulides, is struggling with very low popularity ratings. This is also affecting the popularity of his coalition partners, the Democratic Party (DIKO), the Democratic Movement (DIPA) and the Movement of Social Democrats (EDEK). They are fretting about the European Parliament and local elections on 9 June, especially as far-right ELAM is rising in the polls and has announced that an establishment figure, the former financial ombudsperson, Pavlos Ioannou, will be running on an ELAM ticket. The presidential system makes early elections highly unlikely, so in most likelihood Mr Christodoulides will simply have to hobble on. (Sources: Cyprus Mail, SigmaLive.)
Economy: ahead of the eurozone. According to figures published on 1 March by the Statistical Service, Cystat, real GDP growth in Cyprus reached a seasonally adjusted 2.2% in the final quarter of 2023 and 2.5% for the whole year. Eurostat will publish its first annual GDP growth rates later in the week. But based on flash estimates, Cyprus is likely to have been one of the fastest growing economies in the eurozone in 2023.
Energy: natural gas. Although ENI has not confirmed a timetable for exporting natural gas from the Cronos discovery offshore Cyprus, the government’s aim for production in late 2026/early 2027 is not totally impossible, according to MEES’s Peter Stevenson in this podcast. As explained to Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus subscribers already, production without any deal with Turkish Cypriots raises the risks of a clash with Turkey. (Sources: Reuters, IslandTalks.fm.)
Professional services: AML supervision. Lawyers and accountants were apparently perturbed to find out that their fiduciary activities as Administrative Service Providers (ASPs) would be coming under the supervision of the financial regulator, the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). As explained to Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus subscribers, it should have been no surprise. (Source: Cyprus Business News).
If you want more in-depth analysis and forecasts covering Domestic and geopolitics The Cyprus problem Public finances Natural gas Renewables Reforms The banking sector The macroeconomy The economy of northern Cyprus check out Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus. I challenge to you to find anything else out there that can match its breadth and depth. There is really nothing else like it.
Can’t afford the whole thing? Then sign up for the Executive summary only of Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus for just €100 per year over at Cyprus Pocket Brief.