Sapienta Cyprus Selection 10 Jul 2023
Regular Cyprus-relevant links
Welcome to Sapienta Cyprus Selection, a regular selection of links to articles of medium- to long-term relevance to people living and doing business in Cyprus. Topics marked with * will be, or already have been, analyzed in our monthly issues of Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus. Sapienta Cyprus Selection is part of the Sapienta Cyprus Snippets series. Learn more about the different subsections here.
Eurozone economy*. The latest surveys are fairly downbeat on the eurozone economy. According to a report by ING bank here, “subdued growth is the best we can hope for”. Relevance to Cyprus: as I discuss in more detail in my monthly premium reports, the post-lockdown bounce means that so far the downturn in the EU has not translated into lower tourism arrivals in Cyprus. But as this effect wears off, it might start having an impact on Cyprus, where overall real GDP growth is already slowing.
Ukraine reconstruction. Even while war rages on, the cities and regions of Ukraine are seeking international partners for a range of initiatives and have “identified a range of areas – from de-mining to urban re-development and economic cooperation – where they are seeking international partners” according a press release by the European Committee of the Regions last week. Relevance to Cyprus: As the professional services sector in Cyprus reels from sanctions over Russian-related business, could this be a way for the country to do the kind of business that will salvage its reputation in the West?
Israel politics. There are some topics in the world where the issues are so divisive that it is nigh impossible to find sources that are not tied to one side or another. Israel Policy Pod from the Israel Policy Forum does a good job of trying to trade that very delicate fine line. Podcasts can be found here. Relevance to Cyprus: the Republic of Cyprus has growing political, commercial, security and potentially energy ties with Israel. It is good to keep an eye on internal political stability and anticipate how long any particular government is going to last.
Turkey-Egypt relations. After a 10-year hiatus, Turkey and Egypt announced on 4 July that they had fully restored diplomatic relations and appointed ambassadors. Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, promised that relations would “continue to improve rapidly in political, economic and all other fields”. Article from Reuters here. Relevance to Cyprus: the Republic of Cyprus has also worked hard on relations with Egypt in recent years. My personal view is that it is always better for Cyprus if big countries in the region are cooperating rather than hostile. At the same time, one can expect Turkey to use its reignited friendship to gain observer or full membership of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum. In the past Cypriot officials have indicated that they would not block any members as long as the abide by international law—something of course which can be interpreted narrowly or broadly.
Have you seen the Sapienta Cyprus Reflections series?
· How to bring the people into a Cyprus peace process, 18 May 2023
· Three mega trends to define the decade, 11 May 2023
· Cypriots and sanctions: lessons for other professionals in Cyprus, 18 Apr 2023
· Cyprus and security: it’s time to change the toolbox, 14 Feb 2023
· What do we know about Turkish Cypriot banks? 4 Jan 2023
· How much is Russian business worth to Cyprus? 12 Dec 2022
· The amazing Cyprus growth machine 17 Nov 2022
Or the Cyprus Backgrounder series?
· Maritime delimitation issues 27 Jan 2023
· The Cyprus problem ("Cyprob"), 21 Oct 2022
You can find a full list of my posts here.